Azerbaijan’s Balancing Act in the Ukraine Crisis

The crisis in Ukraine that began with the Euromaidan movement and flight of President
Viktor Yanukovych put the Azerbaijani government in an uncomfortable position. For
the last few years, Baku has been building good relations with Russia, hoping to
persuade Moscow to stand on Azerbaijan’s side in resolving the Karabakh conflict.
Massive arms purchases from Russia, a benevolent foreign policy toward Moscow, and
Baku’s unwillingness to deepen relations with the European Union and NATO have all
created a reasonably positive image of the country in the eyes of Russian authorities.
The Russian occupation of Crimea and support for separatists in the Donbas have
complicated Azerbaijan’s position, however. While the Azerbaijani government fully
supports Ukraine, Baku cannot afford to spoil relations with Moscow due to the latter’s
significant leverage in the Caucasus. Azerbaijan is left with the option of trying not to
irritate Russia while staying on the side of those who object to Russia’s intervention. At
the same time, the Ukraine crisis and a fear of interrupted gas supplies has led to
renewed attention by the European Union to the need for an alternative transport
system for delivery of gas from the Caspian region to European states. European
consumers have even begun to express interest in revitalizing the idea of a Transcaspian
gas pipeline that would deliver Turkmen gas to Europe via Azerbaijan. Overall, the
Ukraine crisis has made Baku’s geopolitical stance a high prize.